More than 700,000 Americans in at least 30 states had already cast ballots as of October 1, with early returns showing Democratic voters requesting mail and absentee ballots at higher rates than at the same point in the 2024 presidential race, according to a CNN analysis of state election data. Election Day is five weeks away, but the numbers are the clearest early signal yet of which party's base is more fired up heading into the fight for control of Congress.

In Iowa, Democrats made up 67% of ballot requests, up from 54% at this point in 2024. Pennsylvania's Democratic share rose to 66% from 62%, and Maine climbed to 57% from 53%. In North Carolina, 42% of ballot requests came from Democrats, up from 36% two years earlier, per data from the state's board of elections cited by CNN's analysis. Virginia, which has posted the heaviest early turnout of any state so far, is showing an even starker split: localities that backed Kamala Harris in 2024 are voting at 78% of their 2024 pace, while Trump counties are at just 61%.

What it does and doesn't tell us

All five of those states have marquee races this cycle. Iowa, Maine and North Carolina have competitive Senate contests, Virginia is electing a governor, and Pennsylvania has both a Senate seat and down-ballot fights that could help decide the House. Analysts caution the data is a leading indicator, not a result: mail and absentee voters tend to skew older and more Democratic than the electorate as a whole, and ballots themselves are secret, so the party breakdown of requests can't be read as an actual vote count.

Your ballot itself is secret, so this data can't tell us how many votes a party or candidate has won.

Still, the trend lines up with other evidence of Democratic energy this cycle, including summer and fall polling, a string of special-election overperformances, and primary turnout that ran well ahead of Republican turnout in several states. Political Wire's rundown of the same numbers noted the shift tracks with Democratic momentum built over the summer campaign season. Republican strategists have countered that the party has spent years urging its voters to abandon early and mail voting in favor of showing up on Election Day itself, which would make any gap in early ballot requests look wider than the eventual result.

Control of both chambers is on the line November 3. Republicans hold narrow majorities in the House and Senate, and strategists in both parties have said the battle for the Senate runs through states like Iowa, Maine and North Carolina, all of which are showing the Democratic uptick in early requests.

The early numbers arrive as the Trump administration and congressional Republicans push an aggressive closing message on affordability and immigration, while Democratic candidates have leaned into cost-of-living and health-care complaints. Both parties' field operations are now racing to convert any enthusiasm edge into banked votes before Election Day, with five weeks left for the picture to shift again as more states open their own early and absentee windows throughout October.

Election officials in the affected states are expected to update ballot-request tallies through the month, and both parties' turnout operations will be watching the next waves of data, particularly out of Senate battlegrounds, for confirmation of whether the early edge holds or narrows as Republicans ramp up their traditional Election Day push.