With Election Day less than a month away, two of the most closely watched Republican-held House seats just got a lot shakier. MAGA Inc., the super PAC aligned with President Trump, and the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF), the chief outside-spending arm for House GOP leadership, are both pulling planned advertising money out of the districts held by Rep. Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa, according to Fox News, which cited a source familiar with the plans after The New York Times first reported it.

The cuts, first reported Monday and confirmed Tuesday by multiple outlets, were driven by internal polling suggesting both incumbents' re-election odds had slipped. Both super PACs are redirecting the money elsewhere rather than simply saving it.

The numbers behind the pullback

According to an Associated Press report carried by ABC News, CLF canceled spending entirely in four House races — Kean's NJ-7, Miller-Meeks' IA-1, plus unnamed races in the Cincinnati, Ohio area and east-central Michigan — totaling roughly $13.3 million, more than 12% of CLF's spending through October 13. The AP reports CLF is pouring money into 16 other races instead, reinforcing Republicans Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Monica De La Cruz of Texas and shoring up districts Trump carried narrowly in 2024.

The stakes for both seats are razor-thin. Miller-Meeks, seeking a fourth term against Democrat Christina Bohannan for the third straight cycle, won her 2024 race by just 799 votes — one of the closest House finishes in the country — after a six-vote margin in 2020. Kean, a second-term Republican facing Democrat Rebecca Bennett, won by about 5.4 points in 2024 after a sub-10,000-vote squeaker in 2022; he also spent four months absent from Congress before disclosing a mental health crisis, and has faced questions over his tariff and Iran war votes, per the AP.

A Kean campaign source told Fox News the race remains "fully funded down the home stretch," saying the campaign and the House GOP's campaign arm have "major reservations on broadcast" even as outside groups shift money. Miller-Meeks' campaign did not respond to Fox News' request for comment.

"You can tell now where people are competing based on where they're putting the money," Republican strategist Stu Sandler told the Associated Press.

Club for Growth president David McIntosh was blunter, telling the AP "it looked like Republicans were weak" heading into the midterms amid voter dissatisfaction with the GOP majority. Fox News' own Power Rankings currently give Democrats an edge in 219 seats to Republicans' 198, with 19 seats undecided — Democrats need 218 for control.

Democrats, for their part, are pressing the advantage. The AP reports the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee launched a $17 million fundraising drive with an October 22 deadline, telling donors at least a dozen more races could be in reach and the money could flip "at least a half dozen" additional seats, including Ohio's 10th District, held by 12-term Republican Mike Turner. DCCC communications director Courtney Rice said the push is about getting "to the next level."

What happens next will show up fast on the airwaves: both parties' super PACs are expected to finalize their closing ad buys in the coming days, with Election Day on November 3 now the deadline for every dollar moved.