Six Days Before the Midterms, the Final Poll in North Carolina's Senate Race Is In
Democrat Roy Cooper heads into Election Day with a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley, according to the last major independent poll of the race — but Whatley's camp insists the contest is far closer than the numbers suggest.
With early voting already underway and Election Day six days out, the final independent poll of North Carolina's marquee Senate race shows Democrat Roy Cooper holding a commanding lead over Republican Michael Whatley heading into the homestretch of one of the most closely watched contests of the midterms.
The final Elon University Poll, released as the university's last survey before Election Day, found the former two-term North Carolina governor leading Whatley 52% to 39% among likely voters, with 6% undecided. The poll surveyed 800 North Carolina adults from Sept. 29 through Oct. 8 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.03 percentage points.
A race both parties are watching closely
Elon poll director Jason Husser attributed Cooper's advantage to strength among moderates, self-described independents and women voters. The same survey found President Trump's approval rating in North Carolina at just 34%, with 57% disapproving — among the worst marks of his second term in any state Elon has polled.
The race is seen as pivotal to control of the Senate, with the seat open after years in Republican hands. Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman, has leaned heavily on his ties to Trump in the race's closing stretch, while Cooper has built his campaign around his record as governor. Other pollsters have shown a tighter race than Elon's numbers suggest: a recent East Carolina University poll put Cooper's lead at seven points, 50% to 43%, and a High Point University survey described the contest as within striking distance for Whatley.
TRUMP'S APPROVAL RATING IN THE STATE: JUST 34%, PER THE SAME POLL
Early voting in North Carolina has also been running well ahead of the last midterm cycle, part of a broader surge in battleground Senate states this fall. National Republican groups have poured money into North Carolina in the race's final weeks, a sign the party sees the seat as within reach despite the polling gap.
What's next
Both campaigns are expected to spend the final days barnstorming the state, with North Carolina's outcome likely to be one of the clearest early signals of which party controls the Senate once all the midterm results are in next Tuesday.