Iowa was not supposed to be one of the races deciding control of the U.S. Senate. But with voters heading to the polls Tuesday, the open seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst has turned into one of the tightest contests in the country, pitting Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson against Democratic state Sen. Josh Turek.

Polling averages compiled by PollCheck as of late October had Turek at 46.0% to Hinson's 45.6% — essentially a coin flip, giving Hinson only a narrow 54% win probability in the site's model. Individual surveys have bounced around: a Suffolk University poll had Turek ahead 48-44, a CNN/SSRS poll had Hinson up 45-43, and a National Public Affairs poll for Republicans showed Hinson leading 47-44 with a Libertarian candidate pulling 4%, as other surveys have shown throughout the fall.

Trump Makes a Personal Pitch

President Trump traveled to Sioux City in Iowa's conservative northwest corner to rally for Hinson, a stop reported by the Associated Press as an effort to boost Republican turnout even as it ties Hinson more closely to an unpopular president in a race she's tried to keep more about herself. At the rally, Trump cast Turek as a "woke, far-left radical" and urged Iowans to reject him.

Hinson, for her part, has tried to carve out some distance from the president on specific issues — she has publicly criticized Trump's decision to ease sanctions on Russia in exchange for diesel fuel imports, and now describes herself as wanting to be "Iowa's best bipartisan fighter" rather than a Trump loyalist.

"HURT IOWA MORE THAN ANY OTHER STATE."

Turek has leaned into economic grievances, arguing in campaign ads that Trump's tariffs and the ongoing war with Iran have "hurt Iowa more than any other state" — a state heavily dependent on agricultural exports and diesel-fueled farm equipment. Turek, a Paralympic wheelchair basketball gold medalist, has also sought to present himself as a pragmatic alternative to national Democratic figures in a state Trump carried by roughly 13 points in 2024.

Why It Matters Nationally

Democrats need a net gain of four Republican-held Senate seats to flip control of the chamber, and Iowa was not on most strategists' lists of top targets even a few months ago. Its sudden competitiveness, alongside tight races in Michigan, Texas, Ohio, North Carolina and South Carolina, reflects a broader erosion in the president's approval ratings heading into the midterms — a trend national Republicans have openly worried about in the race's final stretch.

Polls in Iowa are scheduled to close at 9 p.m. Eastern Tuesday. Given how close both public and internal polling shows the race, a final result may not be clear on election night itself, with both parties bracing for a count that could stretch into Wednesday.