The Trump administration has formally proposed the most sweeping change to how America counts itself in nearly a century, publishing a draft rule this week that would exclude undocumented immigrants, asylum seekers and other people without permanent legal status from the population totals used to divvy up House seats and federal money after the 2030 census.

The proposal, unveiled Wednesday and set for official Federal Register publication the next day, would also strip race, ethnicity and sexual-orientation questions from future census forms while adding a citizenship question — reviving a fight the administration lost in court during Trump's first term. The Census Bureau said in the filing that people living in the country illegally "should not be included in the apportionment count," arguing they lack sufficient "tie and allegiance to the United States" to be counted as inhabitants for the purposes of divvying up political power, according to the Associated Press.

A Fight Over Whose Votes Count

The stakes go well beyond a form. Census totals determine how many of the 435 House seats — and by extension, Electoral College votes — each state gets for the next decade, along with the formulas that steer well over a trillion dollars in federal funding to states and cities. A CNN analysis of the plan found it could reshape both congressional maps and funding streams in states with large immigrant populations, including California, Texas, Florida, New York and New Jersey.

Beth Jarosz of the Association of Public Data Users called the approach "unprecedented," warning that undercounting real residents — not overcounting them — is the actual risk to accurate representation. Manjusha Kulkarni of Stop AAPI Hate said dropping race and ethnicity questions would erase data lawmakers, health providers and public safety officials rely on to serve their communities.

"NOT COUNTING ALL OF THE PEOPLE WHO RESIDE HERE IS ACTUALLY WHERE THE REAL THREAT IS."

Legal scholars say the plan runs headlong into the 14th Amendment, which requires apportionment based on "the whole number of persons in each state" without regard to citizenship or immigration status — the same constitutional language that sank a nearly identical Trump-era effort in 2020. New York Attorney General Letitia James, whose office helped lead that earlier challenge, has signaled the state will sue again if the rule is finalized, according to Roll Call.

Congressional Republicans have pushed for the change for years; the House passed a bill in 2024 to exclude noncitizens from apportionment entirely, and Sen. Bill Hagerty has sponsored similar Senate legislation. A 2020 Pew Research Center estimate found excluding undocumented immigrants would shift three House seats, with California, Florida and Texas losing out to Alabama, Minnesota and Ohio — though a more recent 2025 academic study found the long-run partisan effect on House control has historically been close to neutral.

The rule now enters a public comment period before any final version could take effect, meaning the fight is just beginning — in the Federal Register, and almost certainly in federal court.