HOME / POLITICS / LANSING, MICH.
Dead Heat: New Poll Shows Democrat Flipping Michigan's Make-or-Break Senate Seat
A fresh Fox News survey has Abdul El-Sayed edging Mike Rogers 50%-49% among likely voters, a reversal from August — and a warning sign for Republicans in one of the midterms' top battlegrounds.
One of the most closely watched Senate races in the country has flipped on its head. A new Fox News poll released this past week shows Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers 50% to 49% among likely Michigan voters, reversing an August result in which Rogers held a 51%-47% advantage, according to Fox News' own reporting on the numbers.
Among registered voters, the swing is even sharper: El-Sayed leads 51%-48%. The survey, conducted September 24-28 under the joint direction of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research, sampled 1,203 Michigan voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points for the likely-voter subsample, per Political Wire's summary of the release.
Trump's Shadow Looms Large
The poll found 39% of Michigan voters are "extremely concerned" that Rogers is too closely aligned with President Trump, compared with 36% who feel the same level of concern that El-Sayed is too liberal — numbers that suggest the president's approval rating is weighing on down-ballot Republicans in a state Trump has visited repeatedly this cycle.
EL-SAYED'S SUPPORTERS ARE MORE LOCKED IN THAN ROGERS' — 87% CERTAIN VERSUS 80%
El-Sayed draws his strongest support from women, Black voters, college graduates and voters under 45, while Rogers performs better with men, rural voters, white evangelical Christians and married voters without a college degree, according to the poll's demographic breakdown reported by Newsweek. Statewide, Michigan voters favor Democratic control of the Senate 52%-47% when asked which party they want running the chamber.
Why It Matters
Michigan is one of a handful of battlegrounds — alongside Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Texas — that will decide whether Republicans keep their Senate majority or Democrats claw it back next month. Control of the chamber is widely viewed as a toss-up, and a one-point race in either direction is well within the margin where late advertising spending, candidate missteps or a single news cycle could swing the outcome.
Both campaigns are expected to pour resources into the state's final stretch, with Rogers looking to shore up his base among Trump-aligned voters while El-Sayed tries to lock in the narrow edge pollsters now say he holds. With early voting already underway in parts of the state, neither side has much room left to make up ground.