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Walmart Beats on Every Number — and Wall Street Dumps the Stock Anyway

Walmart topped profit and sales forecasts for the second straight quarter, but shares cratered nearly 9% Thursday after investors zeroed in on soft U.S. comparable sales and questions about how much of the profit boost came from one-time tariff refunds.

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BY OBSERVER NEWSDESK

The Weekly Observer

AUG 20, 2026 · 3 MIN READ
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Walmart Beats on Every Number — and Wall Street Dumps the Stock Anyway
A Walmart store exterior. Photo by KDavid Montero / Unsplash.

Walmart delivered an earnings report that on paper looked like a blowout Thursday — and got punished for it. The retail giant posted fiscal second-quarter adjusted earnings of $0.81 per share on revenue of $187.9 billion, sailing past Wall Street's targets of $0.74 a share and $186.75 billion, according to the company's official earnings release. Investors sold the stock anyway, sending shares down as much as 9.8% in trading, from Wednesday's close of $114.30 to roughly $103, erasing more than $30 billion in market value in a matter of hours.

The numbers behind the headline told a more complicated story. Total revenue climbed 5.9% year over year (5.1% in constant currency), and operating income jumped 28.8%, according to a breakdown published by StockTitan. Global e-commerce sales surged 23%, Walmart's advertising business grew 38%, and membership fee revenue was up 17%. Gross margins expanded nearly a full percentage point, driven largely by the core Walmart U.S. division.

But buried in the release was the figure that spooked traders: U.S. comparable sales rose just 2.6%, well short of the 3.7% growth analysts had penciled in. That miss, paired with a chunk of the earnings beat tied to one-time investment gains and tax benefits rather than core operations, was enough to overshadow the top-line strength. Investing.com's earnings recap noted the adjusted EPS figure excluded $0.12 in investment losses and $0.11 in tax benefits, complicating the picture of how much profit growth is actually repeatable.

Guidance Raised, Confidence Questioned

Walmart also nudged up its full-year sales outlook, now projecting net sales growth of 4% to 5% for the fiscal year, compared with its prior guidance of 3.5% to 4.5%. Ordinarily a raised forecast would cheer investors. Instead, traders read it as underwhelming given the magnitude of the quarter's beat, and worried aloud about how much of the margin gain reflects temporary tariff-related refunds rather than durable cost discipline.

The selloff wasn't really about Walmart missing a number — it beat nearly every headline metric. The reaction reflected the market questioning the quality and durability of the beat.

That skepticism showed up quickly in analyst notes. Several desks flagged that Walmart is also absorbing the cost of price investments meant to keep it competitive against Amazon and dollar-store rivals amid still-elevated inflation, a tension that could squeeze margins further even as top-line growth holds up. The stock's slide left it near the lower end of its 52-week trading range and pushed its trailing price-to-earnings ratio to roughly 40, a level some analysts argue leaves little room for anything less than flawless execution.

Thursday's reaction stands in contrast to Walmart's run over the past year, with shares still up more than 16% over the trailing twelve months heading into the print, according to trading data cited by Investing.com. The report also lands in the middle of a closely watched retail earnings week that includes Ross Stores after Thursday's close and Alibaba's results, with investors using the results as a bellwether for how resilient the American consumer remains heading into the fall.

Walmart executives are set to elaborate on the quarter's dynamics — including the tariff-refund impact and pricing strategy — during Thursday's earnings call, with investors watching closely for any commentary on holiday-season demand and whether the softer U.S. comp-sales trend persists into the current quarter.

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