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Trump Flies Into Kansas as a Once-Safe Senate Seat Turns Into a Nail-Biter
With 15 days until Election Day, the president heads to Wichita to rescue Sen. Roger Marshall after Cook Political Report called the race a true toss-up — while JD Vance stumps 1,100 miles away in North Carolina.
President Trump is set to rally Monday evening in Wichita for Sen. Roger Marshall, a Republican whose reelection bid in deep-red Kansas has, almost improbably, become one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. Doors for the event open at 2:30 p.m. local time, with remarks expected around 6 p.m.
The visit comes two weeks after the Cook Political Report shifted the race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up, a striking move in a state Trump carried by 16 points in 2024. Cook's Jessica Taylor wrote that for Republicans this cycle, "the question isn't whether Democrats will gain seats, but how many." Sabato's Crystal Ball made the same downgrade.
Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton are running essentially even — about 46% apiece in a RealClearPolitics polling average through October 10, with one YouGov survey putting Hamilton ahead 48% to 45%. Betting markets still favor the incumbent: Kalshi had Marshall's odds at 62% as of last week. Democrats' Senate Majority PAC has told reporters it is "watching the Kansas race really closely" as it decides where to spend down the stretch.
A split-screen campaign day
While Trump works Kansas, Vice President JD Vance is headlining a midterm rally the same day in Hendersonville, North Carolina, with doors opening at 10 a.m. and remarks set for 1:15 p.m. — part of a broader East Coast swing that also has Trump stopping in Greenville, North Carolina, and Clemson, South Carolina, later this week.
THE QUESTION ISN'T WHETHER DEMOCRATS WILL GAIN SEATS, BUT HOW MANY
Nationally, forecasters have Democrats favored to flip the House. Decision Desk HQ's model gave Democrats roughly a 76% chance of winning a House majority as of its most recent update, while rating the Senate as a tighter fight tilted toward Republicans holding on. Early voting is already underway in several states ahead of the November 3 election, with races in Maine, Ohio, Michigan and North Carolina also drawing heavy national spending alongside Kansas.
For Marshall, Monday's rally is a bet that a presidential visit can shore up a base that hasn't needed shoring up in a generation. For Democrats, Kansas has become a test of whether the same discontent showing up in national polling can flip even the reddest terrain.