Global oil markets closed out the week under serious pressure as Brent crude surged toward $96 a barrel, gaining roughly 9% over five sessions in its strongest weekly performance since mid-July, driven by fears that the escalating military exchange between the United States and Iran could choke off crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to Trading Economics, U.S. and Iranian forces traded strikes for the first time in roughly a month this week, with the U.S. hitting Iranian vessels and Tehran retaliating against American bases and shipping in the region. Brent settled near $95 to $96 a barrel on Friday, up sharply from levels seen just a week earlier when a temporary lull in hostilities had briefly calmed the market.

Hormuz Remains the Wild Card

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil consumption passes, has been the central flashpoint of the conflict for weeks. Traders have been pricing in a growing risk premium as attacks on tankers and naval vessels near the strait have made shipping through the corridor progressively more dangerous, pushing up marine insurance costs alongside crude prices themselves.

BRENT IS UP NEARLY 9% ON THE WEEK — ITS BIGGEST WEEKLY GAIN SINCE MID-JULY.

The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation has previously signaled it could step in to backstop insurance for vessels and naval escorts if commercial insurers become unwilling to cover Hormuz transits at any price, underscoring how seriously Washington is treating the shipping-disruption risk. So far, tankers have continued moving through the strait, but with growing delays and rerouting as owners weigh the risk against the cost of alternative, longer routes around the Arabian Peninsula.

The crude spike compounds a rough stretch for American consumers already grappling with record retail diesel prices tied to the same conflict. Higher crude costs typically take days to weeks to filter through to pumps, meaning further increases at gas stations could be on the way if Brent holds near current levels or climbs further.

Energy analysts caution that the market's reaction has been more measured than during past Middle East supply scares, in part because U.S. shale production and strategic reserves offer more of a buffer than a decade ago. Still, a sustained closure or even partial disruption of Hormuz traffic would mark a far more serious scenario than markets have priced in so far, and traders say they're watching for any sign that Iran might make good on past threats to obstruct the strait directly rather than continue strikes on shipping and bases nearby.